Global LED output value estimate from 2005 to 2010 (Source: Extension Industry Research Institute)
Estimated LED output value of Taiwan from 2005 to 2010 (Source: Extension Industry Research Institute)
The Institute of Industrial Research (TRI) analyzed the LED application trends in 2009, arguing that the price drop and the breakthrough of the light guide technology will promote the penetration of the LED backlight module market. For example, after Acer and Dell announced that they will adopt LED backlight modules in 2009, it is estimated that the global LED NB penetration rate will jump from 10% in 2008 to 28% in 2009, and Netbook's LED backlight module penetration rate has reached 100. %.
The maximum size of the LED backlight module used in LCD TV has reached 46 marks, but there are still technical bottlenecks, and it is still difficult to mass production in the short term. In addition, due to factors such as the decline in global mobile phone shipments in 2009, and the growing popularity of China's cottage mobile phones, the market value of mobile LED backlight modules may gradually decline.
Researcher of the Industrial Research Institute, Bai Dejun, said that the price competition of Taiwanese manufacturers has led to a 15% to 25% drop in white LEDs, coupled with the surge in LED backlight modules in NB and Netbook products, as well as large-scale LEDs driven by the Chinese market. Lighting and outdoor advertising billboard applications are expected to stimulate global LED production value to grow by 15.7% in 2009, a record high of 8.677 billion US dollars; Taiwan's LED output value will also reach 2.314 billion US dollars, the growth rate of 18.24% outperformed the world. Faced with the challenges of China's LED industry, group-based operations and strategic alliances will be the key to the stable market position of Taiwanese players in 2009.
White LEDs with high luminous efficiency and high brightness are regarded as important indicators for LEDs entering the field of illumination, and their applications are becoming more and more extensive. Bai Dejun pointed out that in 2009, white LED was affected by the price cut strategy of Japanese manufacturer Nichia. In addition, the overall supply of LED in 2008 was oversupplied. The white LED product ASP is expected to fall from US$0.16 in 2008 to US$0.14 in 2009. Although white LEDs are expected to fall by 15% to 25%, the decline in ASP will help boost market demand and ease the pressure of oversupply.
On the other hand, the new LED application launched by the 2008 Beijing Olympics continues to have fever, coupled with the 2010 Shanghai World Expo, the Guangzhou Asian Games, and the 2011 Shenzhen World University Games, which will be followed by large LED billboards. The application business opportunities of architectural landscape lighting are also the focus of the LED industry in 2009. In the LED road lighting market, in addition to the promotion of international exhibition events, the implementation of large-scale procurement and LED road lighting demonstration plans of various governments, as well as LED street lighting specifications have been finalized, and the global LED street lamp market penetration rate will be estimated in 2009. Breaking through 1% and starting to enter the fast growth period.
As for the application of LED in indoor lighting, Bai Dezhen believes that the luminous efficiency of LED bulbs in 2009 is expected to increase to 100lm/W, but the price must be further reduced, and it is likely to become popular in the indoor lighting market. The AC LED technology driven directly by AC, and the development of LED lighting regulations and standard specifications in various countries, all contribute to the development of the LED lighting industry.
Benefiting from the increase in shipments of LED NB and Netbook, as well as the holding of international events such as Shanghai World Expo and Guangzhou Asian Games, coupled with the application markets of street lights, projector lights, mobile phones and digital photo frames, it is expected that the 2009 LED factory in Taiwan will There are a large number of outdoor billboards and lighting products influx. However, in the face of the problem of oversupply of LEDs in 2008, Taiwanese companies will respond to the expansion of production line expansion. It is estimated that the growth rate of LED supply in Taiwan will drop from 52% in 2008 to 28% in 2009.
However, China's LED industry is in a rage, and Taiwanese manufacturers often have limited market development due to technology and patent issues. Bai Dezhen believes that Taiwanese companies can stabilize the market through strategic alliances, or like UMC, Foxconn, The development of companies such as Lite On, which has a complete layout from downstream to upstream, also contributes to lower production costs.
Is the LED market over-hyped?
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