China is the fastest growing region in the global semiconductor lighting industry

The "Opinions on the Development of Semiconductor Lighting Energy-Saving Industry" pointed out that by 2015, the average annual growth rate of the output value of semiconductor lighting energy-saving industry will be around 30%; the market share of products will increase year by year, the functional lighting will reach 20%, and the LCD backlight will reach more than 50%. The market share of landscape decoration and other products has reached more than 70%; the independent innovation capability of enterprises has been significantly enhanced. Large-scale MOCVD equipment, key raw materials and more than 70% of the chips have been localized, and 3-5 upstream chip-scale production enterprises; industrial concentration is remarkable. We will improve the number of leading enterprises with independent brands and large market influence; initially establish a semiconductor lighting standard system; realize annual energy saving of 40 billion kWh, equivalent to 40 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions per year.

How did these numbers come from? What is hidden behind the numbers? Within 6 years, whether functional lighting reaches 20% and whether the localization rate reaches 70% can be achieved? To this end, "Semiconductor Lighting" magazine interviewed the National Semiconductor Lighting Engineering Research and Development and Industry Alliance Deputy Secretary-General Qi Jun. Qi Jun pointed out that China is one of the fastest growing regions in the global LED industry. In particular, while the global financial crisis in 2008 caused the deceleration of semiconductor lighting (development) in developed countries, China's semiconductor lighting industry still maintained a strong growth momentum, and the growth rate was much higher than the global market. The objectives set out in the Opinions are challenging, but they are achievable based on objective judgments and industry efforts.

Industrial output value increases by about 30% annually

According to the statistics of the United States Strategies Unlimited, the global LED market has grown at an average annual growth rate of more than 20% in the past decade. In particular, high-brightness LEDs have grown more rapidly. The average annual growth rate during the 10-year period from 1995 to 2005 reached 46%. The market share of LEDs in LED products increased from 40% in 2001 to over 80% in 2008. It is estimated that the global LED market will grow by 34% from 2008 to 2012 (cited from the tenth in February 2009 in the United States). "Strategied inLight" International Conference, Strategies Unlimited data).

According to the statistics of National Semiconductor Lighting Engineering R&D and Industry Alliance, the average annual growth rate of China's LED packaging industry output value reached 12% between 2005 and 2009, and the growth rate of applied products reached 50%. The growth rate of the industry's overall output value reached 35. %the above.

The global financial crisis in 2008 caused the development of the semiconductor lighting industry in developed countries to slow down, while the development of China's semiconductor lighting industry still maintained a strong growth momentum. As China's status in the world's lighting industry continues to increase, its market share is gradually increasing. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, the overall growth rate of China's lighting industry from 2005 to 2008 is about 25%, and according to the data of World Industrial Volume, the global market for global lighting is growing at around 10%. The growth rate of the Chinese lighting market is much higher than the growth rate of the global market.

Since 2009, the European Union, Australia, the United States and other countries have begun to implement the ban on incandescent lamps. By 2012, almost all developed countries will ban the sale of inefficient incandescent lamps. Similarly, China has begun to eliminate incandescent lamps to promote high-efficiency energy-saving lighting products. By 2013, demand for LEDs will grow steadily due to the expansion of demand for electrical, automotive and non-residential buildings.

The medium and large size LCD backlight and general lighting market have become the biggest driving force for the rapid development of the LED industry. LED backlights are rapidly increasing in notebook computers and monitors. According to the plans of major global computer manufacturers, LED backlights will be used in the next three years, and the adoption rate of LCD TV LED backlights will increase from less than 1% to 50% in five years. the above. LED technology development roadmaps in the United States, Japan and other countries also show that LEDs will be widely used in various lighting fields in 2015.

According to the laws of Heitz and the actual statistics, the improvement of semiconductor lighting technology and the decline of price are very obvious, which provides preparation for large-scale application development.

Based on the above considerations, many industry experts predict that the development speed of China's semiconductor lighting industry will be significantly higher than the global development average, and is expected to reach 40% to 50%. However, considering that the impact of the global financial crisis will continue, the transformation of the traditional lighting industry will require a certain period of time, the change of lighting consumption habits will take a long time, and the development of China's technology and industry will require some major breakthroughs and other factors in the next six years. The development of the semiconductor lighting industry will maintain a growth rate of around 30%, which is a conservative estimate.

Landscape decorative lighting market share reached 70%

As the lighting of semiconductor lighting is energy-saving, safe and colorful, it has already shown obvious market advantages in terms of point and line lighting in landscape lighting, and has become the absolute main force in the market, replacing traditional foam, The comprehensive competitive advantages of neon and other aspects have become quite obvious, and the urban landscape lighting market will usher in an explosive growth period.

With the acceleration of the urbanization process, local governments have increased the implementation of urban landscape lighting. LED landscape lights are being arranged in major small and medium-sized cities and tourist areas in China. Many residential areas and major construction projects are using LEDs to replace traditional and power-consuming neon lights. China's LED landscape lighting is welcoming new development peaks. The industry believes that the landscape lighting market is currently the largest application market for LED lighting in China, accounting for about 50% of the total LED application products, accounting for 25% of the traditional landscape decorative lighting market, accounting for 50% of the new landscape decorative lighting market ( Quoted from the China Electronics News in May 2008, and the market share is getting higher and higher. At present, the landscape lighting of some large and medium-sized cities such as Shanghai, Beijing, Xiamen, Chongqing, Dalian, Suzhou and Nanchang has been quite large. Some cities such as Xiamen, The proportion of urban landscape lighting in Chongqing and other cities is extremely high, especially in the landscape lighting project in Chongqing, the proportion of LED application is over 95% (according to the data of major special projects for the development of science and technology in Chongqing during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan”). Experts said that in 2006 alone, the domestic LED lighting market grew at a rate of more than 70%, and its market size is about 20 billion yuan per year (quoted from China Electronics News, May 2008). According to the National Semiconductor Lighting Engineering R&D and Industry Alliance statistics, China has become the world's largest producer and exporter of landscape decorative lighting products with an annual growth rate of over 20%. It is expected that the overall market share will reach 70% in 2015.

LCD backlight market share reached 50%

According to Taiwan's isupply forecast, the LED backlight share of notebook computers in 2008 was 14%, 60% in 2009, more than 90% in 2010, and 100% in 2011 or 2012. The market share of LED-backlit LCD TVs is expected to reach 2% in 2009, 5% and 8% in 2010 and 2011, respectively, and 60% in 2015. The person in charge of Taiwan’s Jingdian said that since 2008, LED has accounted for more than 50% of notebook backlights, and the share of LED applications in TV backlights will increase to 10%, and the share will increase to 50% in the next few years. Demand in the solid-state lighting market is at least 10 times that of the TV industry.

The actions of the world's major TV brand manufacturers reflect the rapid expansion of the market. In 2009, South Korea's Samsung, which has a global TV market share of 20% to 25%, plans to achieve a 10% penetration rate of its own brand LED backlights, which is about 3 million units. Samsung Electronics’ second-quarter 2009 financial report showed that Samsung’s second-quarter net profit rose 5.2% year-on-year, exceeding analysts’ expectations, thanks to sales of TV and mobile phones. Japan's Sharp Corporation said that Sharp plans to convert all of its original LCD LCD TV product lines into LED-backlit LCD TV product lines by 2011. LG Electronics predicts that the LED backlight ratio in the LCD TV market will increase from 3% in 2009 to 20% in 2010 and to 40% in 2011.

China's LED backlight market is also gradually developing. In July 2008, Hisense launched a 42-inch LCD TV with LED backlight, which sold more than 10,000 units. The target for 2009 is to sell 32, 37, 42 and 47-inch LED-backlit LCD TVs. 100,000 units. Tsinghua Tongfang and Skyworth have launched 19, 22, 26 and 32-inch LED-backlit LCD TVs, and 42-inch large-size LED TVs will also be available at the end of the year.

Taking into account the global development of the LCD-TV industry, combined with the actual development of China's LCD industry and the actual level of consumption, China's LED-backlit LCD-TV share will be around 50%.

Functional lighting market share reaches 20%

The current luminous efficacy of LEDs has reached 110lm/W, and the efficiency of lamps has exceeded 70lm/W. According to the technical development roadmap of the United States, Japan, South Korea and China, the luminous efficacy of LEDs will reach 150lm/W or more by 2015, and the future lighting sources will be energy-saving fluorescent lamps, LED light sources, high-pressure sodium lamps, ceramic metal halide lamps, etc. Highly efficient lighting source.

At present, large-scale public construction and office lighting products are mainly T12 straight tube fluorescent lamps and grid lights; hotels, shopping malls, supermarkets and other commercial places, lighting products mostly with T10 or T8 straight tube fluorescent lamps, incandescent lamps, grid lamps, halogen Lamps are mainly used; municipal lighting is mostly based on high-pressure sodium lamps; lighting products of various industrial and mining enterprises, airports, stations and other places are mainly iodine-tungsten lamps and mercury lamps, especially coal mines, and underground lighting products are mostly 3000W iodine. Tungsten lamps have extremely high energy consumption. The common features of the above lighting products are long lighting time, high density and high power consumption. With the improvement of LED technology, the emergence of energy-saving effects, and the decline of cost, LED has begun to enter the functional lighting market such as indoors, tunnels, roads, etc. According to the National Semiconductor Lighting Engineering R&D and Industry Alliance statistics, as of the end of February 2009, the country A total of 150,000 LED street lights are installed and used, and LED indoor lighting fixtures are more than 200,000. In the next three years, LED will continue to be widely used in industrial and mining enterprises, commercial offices, public lighting and other fields; in 3-5 years, it will gradually apply from high-end home decoration lighting to functional indoor and outdoor lighting, expected in 2015 Will account for 20% of the market share of General Lighting.

The chip achieves 70% localization rate

Since the launch of the semiconductor lighting project in 2003 and the implementation of the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" 863 major projects, China's LED epitaxial materials, chip manufacturing, device packaging, phosphors and other aspects have shown unit technology with independent technology property rights, some core technologies have original Sexuality has initially formed a relatively complete R&D and industrial system from upstream materials, midstream chip preparation, downstream device packaging and integration applications, laying a foundation for the expansion of China's LED industry to a certain extent. At present, the power efficiency of the power chip package completed by China's chip enterprise industrialization line exceeds 90lm/W. The power-based silicon substrate LED chip with independent intellectual property rights has a luminous efficiency of 78lm/W, which is at the international advanced level. According to the statistics of the National Semiconductor Lighting Engineering R&D and Industry Alliance, the cumulative investment in the domestic LED industry has reached 15 billion yuan since 2004. For the last three consecutive years, the number of MOCVDs ordered and installed by enterprises has exceeded 50 units per year. Significantly improved, by the end of 2008, the chip localization rate reached 49% (see Figure 1). According to the current expansion plans of the alliance members and the number of machine orders, it is expected that there will be nearly 200 MOCVDs in the next three years. At present, Cree, Xuming and Taiwanese chip makers have entered the domestic market in the form of joint ventures, which is bound to further drive the localization of chips. In 2015, the localization rate of chips is likely to reach 70%.

Annual electricity saving 40 billion kWh

In 2008, China's total power generation was 3.4334 billion kWh. China's lighting power consumption is about 400 billion kWh, accounting for 12% of the country's electricity consumption, accounting for 5.9% of national energy consumption. In the process of building a well-off society in the future, lighting power still remains. It will maintain a rapid growth trend, and the proportion of lighting electricity consumption to the total national electricity consumption will also continue to increase. If the annual growth rate of electricity consumption is 5% to 10%, it is estimated that the electricity consumption for lighting in 2015 will be 562.8 billion to 779.5 billion kWh. According to the International Energy Outlook 2006, the national power generation in 2015 will reach 452 billion kWh, and China's lighting power will reach 580 billion kWh. Here, we predict that China's lighting power consumption will be 600 billion kWh in 2015.

It is estimated that the luminous efficiency of LED products will reach 150lm/W in 2015 (15lm/W for incandescent lamps, 20lm/W for halogen lamps, 90lm/W for fluorescent lamps, 120lm/W for high-pressure sodium lamps), and LED lighting products will enter more than 20% of general lighting market. More than 70% of the landscape decorative lighting market has been estimated to save 41.8 billion kWh annually. LED backlights will enter more than 50% of the LCD TV market, 100% LCD monitors and notebook computers, with an annual power saving of 24.6 billion kWh, totaling 66.4 billion kWh of electricity. (See Table 1)

Table 1 LED energy saving estimate

Among them, the indoor lighting energy consumption in the general lighting market totals 35.8 billion kWh. It is estimated that in 2015, the number of incandescent lamps and fluorescent lamps in China will be 2 billion and 6 billion fluorescent lamps, and LED will replace 10% incandescent lamps and 30% fluorescent lamps. The average incandescent lamp is calculated according to 40W, and the average fluorescent lamp is calculated by 30W. The average daily usage time is 3.5 hours, 365 days per year. In 2015, the LED energy saving effect of incandescent lamp is 80%, and the annual energy saving is 8.2 billion kWh, which can replace the fluorescent lamp energy saving effect by 40%. It can save 27.6 billion kWh per year. In terms of municipal road lighting in the general lighting market, the number of street lamps will exceed 30 million in 2015. It is expected that LED street lamps will account for about 30%, energy saving will exceed 100W per day, and an average of 10 hours per day, 365 days per year, street lamps will save electricity. Will exceed 3 billion kWh.

In terms of landscape lighting, according to statistics, the current electricity consumption of urban landscape and municipal road lighting is basically the same, but the penetration rate is much higher than that of LED street lamps. In 2015, the application rate of LED in the landscape field will reach 70% or more. Up to 3 billion kWh.

LED LCD backlight, it is expected that by 2015, notebook and display backlights will be completely replaced by LED backlights, LED-backlit TVs will also account for 50%, according to 365 days per year, an average of 6 hours per day calculation. LED-backlit TV (in 42吋) with a total annual power of 19.7 billion kWh, LED-backlit display (17 吋) annual total electricity consumption of 3.3 billion kWh, LED-backlit laptop (12 吋) annual total electricity With 1.6 billion kWh, the total of the three will reach 24.6 billion kWh.

From the above estimation, the power saving effect of general lighting, landscape decorative lighting and LED LCD backlight can reach 66.4 billion kWh, and a conservative estimate of 40 billion kWh should be no problem.

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