In 2015, China's new energy vehicles showed explosive growth, with a production of 379,000 units, a 3.5-fold increase over the same period last year. China has also become the world's largest incremental market for new energy vehicles. Under the expectation that the national new energy vehicle will reach the target of 5 million vehicles in the next five years, we expect that the output of new energy vehicles will maintain a compound annual growth rate of about 40% by 2020 and continue to be high in the next five years. Growth momentum. As the first year of the implementation of the 13th Five-Year Plan Policy and the overall macroeconomic growth rate, the growth performance of the new energy automobile industry will be more prominent in 2016. As a hot emerging industry in the moment, this report reports on the status quo of the new energy automobile industry from the perspective of policy influence and industry chain, and analyzes its existing problems, difficulties and future development trends.
Policy subsidies are not enough
Based on environmental protection, energy security and other reasons, vigorously developing new energy vehicles and emerging industries is China's basic national policy. Since 2013, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Science and Technology have successively issued a series of policies to encourage and promote the development of new energy vehicles, including high subsidies for the purchase price of new energy vehicles, and Policy offers such as limit numbers.
Specifically, in order to cultivate industrial demand and improve industrial space from the economic perspective, the state has spared no effort in financial support for pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid (including extended-range) vehicles and fuel vehicles, and clearly formulated the future five. The road map for the annual subsidy to gradually decline. As shown in Figure 1, 2 and Table 1, for pure electric and plug-in hybrid passenger cars and buses, tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of subsidies are given according to the driving range, while for special vehicles or trucks, according to the battery The capacity is given a subsidy of 1,800 yuan per kilowatt hour.
From the current situation, fuel vehicles have not yet been industrialized, and rechargeable new energy passenger cars and commercial vehicles will remain the mainstream of the market in the future. Under the dual pressure of the central government on local incentives and assessments based on the promotion requirements of new energy vehicles, local governments have introduced various preferential policies to encourage new energy vehicles, and since last year, local subsidies for new energy vehicles have been adopted in many cities. Level 1:1 with state subsidies. Among the representative first-tier cities, Beijing is the first city in the country to introduce fiscal policy for pure electric vehicles in 2015. In addition, Shenzhen has achieved remarkable results in promoting new energy logistics vehicles. By the end of 2015, Shenzhen has promoted the application of 3,000 pure electric logistics vehicles.
In general, the National New Energy Automobile Industry Plan 2015-2020 gives a clear target for the growth of new energy vehicle sales in the future, and has formulated a series of support policies for subsidies, which have given the new energy automobile industry a strong national strategic level. The absolute height of development reflects its firm determination and attitude. Judging from the promotion of national policies, most local governments and the central government maintain a high level of consistency, reflecting the high implementation of local policies on national policies. We believe that policy subsidies push up the industrial boom of new energy vehicles from the downstream demand side, promote the production, sales and operation of new energy vehicles, promote the development, production and commercialization of power lithium batteries, and pull the whole new dimension from the full dimension. The booming energy industry chain is the most direct, fundamental and powerful reason for the rapid development of the entire new energy vehicle industry, and the most important external factors.
Of course, from the perspective of the number of policy subsidies in the next five years, there is still a gradual withdrawal of subsidies. This is mainly due to the fact that the manufacturing cost of related components of lithium batteries will be greatly reduced after the new energy vehicle technology route is mature. . On the contrary, if subsidies continue to be high, excess profits are likely to breed inappropriate social behaviors such as “cheatsâ€, which is not conducive to market benign competition and corporate survival of the fittest. We believe that policy support is a key factor in the growth and development of emerging industries in the early stages of growth, and plays a vital role in nurturing new industries. Later, policies gradually withdraw after new technologies become mature, and the corresponding reasonable decline in subsidies is Taking into account the own laws of market development, it is in line with the inherent needs of sustainable industrial development.
Further, the subsidy retreat does not mean that the development of the new energy vehicle industry has lost momentum. From 2016, the new energy auto industry still faces many bright spots and favorable policies, which are worth looking forward to. First, the policy will increase support for the operation of new energy vehicles, including encouraging social capital to participate in new energy car rental finance, “legalization†of network car operation, encouraging and restricting government and other government departments to strengthen government procurement and use of new energy vehicles. We encourage new vehicles such as freight and logistics to use new energy vehicles. New energy vehicle operations are expected to take over the sales of new energy vehicles to become the next growth pole. The second is that the charging network, as the weak link of the new energy automobile industry at this stage, will usher in rapid development under the policy. In the second quarter of this year, according to the subsidy of the charging network implemented in Shenzhen and other pilot cities, the draft is expected to be approved by experts and high-level affirmation, so that the nation's charging infrastructure construction will be rapidly and widely promoted. This year is expected to become a charging network construction force. The first year. At the same time, the above two points are counterproductive to the production and sales of new energy vehicles, forming positive feedback: As new energy vehicle technology advances and enhances the consumer experience, the rise of new energy vehicle operations accelerates user habit cultivation and the improvement of charging infrastructure. These will further increase the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the private sector. In general, we believe that policy considerations are all-encompassing, and support for new energy vehicles is also multi-dimensional, and the impact of subsidies on new energy vehicle industry is not enough.
New energy automobile industry chain
As shown in Figure 3, the three major links of new energy vehicle manufacturing, new energy vehicle operation and charging network constitute the industrial ecology of the entire new energy vehicle.
Figure 3: New energy vehicle industry chain
Difficulties and breakthroughs in future development
Although the 13th Five-Year Plan outlines the grand blueprint for the comprehensive development of the new energy automobile industry in the next five years, in the short term, there are inevitably some stage problems and difficulties in the development of the new energy automobile industry:
1. In terms of safety, as the mainstream power lithium battery technology route, there are still relative disadvantages in terms of safety and stability. In the past year, safety accidents and hidden dangers such as spontaneous combustion of new energy vehicles have received much attention from the market. For lithium battery manufacturers, in the future, the optimization of material properties and the technical process of producing materials need to be further improved. For vehicle manufacturers, the assembly management and system integration capabilities of battery management systems are equally important, and their quality requirements and testing processes need to be further strengthened.
2. Although the subsidy of national policy subsidies is an inevitable trend, in line with the law of industrial development, the impact of future subsidies on the impact of new energy production manufacturers still depends on the maturity of individual enterprise technology routes and the decline in costs. Speed, in this process, the ability to control the cost of SMEs that lag behind in technology upgrades and slower market response will be tested by the market. In addition, local government subsidies are an important factor in supporting the vigorous development of local new-source automobile industry. In 2015, the rapid development of new energy vehicles benefited from the high-level subsidies of 1:1 for local governments in most of the promotion areas. With the decline in economic growth and the tightening of local finances, there are many uncertainties in the implementation of local subsidies and the introduction of time in 2016, which may also adversely affect the development of the new energy automobile industry.
3. The construction speed of the charging network is not as good as expected. It is expected that the charging infrastructure will be newly built this year. However, if the investment and construction speed of the charging network is not up to expectations during the year, it will still restrict the growth of new energy vehicles this year.
4, lithium battery technology level is the core to determine the performance of a new energy vehicle. Relatively speaking, at this stage, China's new energy automobile industry is still in an emerging stage of growth, and various technical performances are still not mature. In addition to the improvement of safety, the improvement of the energy density, power density, tolerance, cycle charge and discharge times, and service life of new energy vehicles in power lithium batteries needs to be improved.
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