After the road map is released, we have a variety of means that will not go wrong. It turns out that we are biased and we are all engaged in new energy. It is impossible for new energy vehicles to dominate at the current level.
On October 26th, at the annual meeting of the China Society of Automotive Engineers, the "Technology Roadmap for Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicles" was officially released, and the blueprint for technology development for the next 15 years was drawn for China's automobile industry.
In terms of development direction and path selection, the technology roadmap is based on energy-saving vehicles, new energy vehicles and intelligent network-linked vehicles as the main breakthrough, and comprehensively promotes the low-carbon, information, intelligence and high-quality of the automotive industry.
It is reported that the "Technology Roadmap for Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicles" is a large-scale joint research project completed by 500 experts over a year. The road map for this release is “1+7â€, which mainly includes: overall technology roadmap, energy-saving automobile technology roadmap, pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicle technology roadmap, hydrogen fuel cell vehicle technology roadmap, intelligent network The joint vehicle technology roadmap, the automobile manufacturing technology roadmap, the automotive power battery technology roadmap, and the automotive lightweight technology roadmap.
On November 3, the reporter interviewed the trader of the technical roadmap exclusively, Fu Yuwu, chairman of the China Automotive Engineering Society, and exclusive interpretation of the “Technology Roadmap for Energy Saving and New Energy Vehiclesâ€.
Multiple technical routes combined
Reporter: This technical roadmap is to let us fully understand in which direction the future will go, instead of putting the treasure on pure electric?
Fu Yuwu: In 2030, our traditional cars also occupied the mainstream position. Including energy-efficient cars and hybrids, Volkswagen and Toyota's hybrids are standard. New energy vehicles and intelligent networked vehicles also need energy-saving vehicles to support all aspects. Energy-saving technologies have room for development, such as the fuel efficiency of engines. It is now entirely possible to see 48%. Of course, improving the transmission efficiency of the automatic transmission can also save fuel. In short, if there is no basis for protection, the new energy vehicle and the intelligent network will be "air castles."
Reporter: If we say that new energy vehicles will account for 50% in 2030, then in this technical roadmap, is there any regulation on the proportion of pure electric vehicles in new energy vehicles?
Fu Yuwu: The general report says that new energy vehicles, including energy-saving cars, account for 50%. The main head here should be hybrid power. Hybrid power can be said to be weak mix, micro mix, medium mix to deep mix. Why do I have this? Very confident? Because it is relatively more practical. There are regulations now, whether it is the points system or the four-stage fuel consumption, this regulation is to be upgraded.
What about the regulatory upgrade? How can I achieve my goal? Previously, the regulations have not been reached, and finally the regulations have come out. This time, the cooperation of various technical routes can be calculated.
Now that this road map is released, we have a variety of means that will not go wrong. It turns out that we are biased and we are all engaged in new energy. New energy vehicles are unlikely to occupy a dominant position at the current level. Therefore, why more than 500 experts in this industry have unanimously unified their opinions, because everything has been taken into account.
Hybrid attention should be higher
Reporter: Before 2030, I felt that most of the new energy vehicles might be hybrid, mixed or mainstream. So after this technology roadmap came out, everyone will pay more attention to hybrid power.
Fu Yuwu: These seven roadmaps say seven powers. There are many sub-projects and sub-technologies. As for the technical route chosen by the enterprise, the automobile is the main body, and the combination of production, study and research is required. The material, technology, and foundation are different.
There is no doubt that hybrid power will attract unprecedented attention, because the regulations are there, this technology is the most mature, for example, mixing can save 5% oil, this 5% oil is very important. If we say that these basic technologies are not good, electric vehicles cannot be sold abroad.
Modern technology uses plug-in hybrid power as an example. We also have engines, such as 2L engines. We do hybrid power plug-ins with the same level of power consumption. Volkswagen's similar car weight may be 5% higher than traditional cars. An increase of 10%, we in China will increase by 30%.
Because the traditional basic technology is not done well, then the horizontal comparison is not competitive. On the contrary, why are people lightweight? Structural improvements, process technology improvements are supporting it. So I am still saying that the traditional industry is not doing well, and the new industry is not doing well.
Reporter: There is a view that Toyota Hybrid is profitable, which is a comparative advantage for him to do EV. In other words, for our own brand enterprises, is it better to do pure electric power in the past, is it more cost-effective?
Fu Yuwu: The judgment of the market on the market is different from its foundation, and different combinations are chosen. Nissan is pure electric, Toyota is doing hybrid power, then Toyota has hybrids for its reasons, especially fuel cells, Toyota and Honda believe that fuel cells are promising, they think the cost of fuel cells and its power in recent years Improve faster. Therefore, they do not engage in pure electric, a mixed action as the main body, and then engage in fuel cells, Nissan is not, Nissan’s chief engineer told me that the annual battery energy density has increased by 5%, and for 10 years, I saw pure electric Huge potential.
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