In mid-summer June, many cities brushed high temperatures above 35 degrees Celsius, and Shenyang, which is more than 20 degrees Celsius, is more suitable for leisure and summer. Qu Daokui, president of Shenyang Xinsong Robotics Co., Ltd., has been quite busy recently.
On June 16th, the China Robot TOP10 Summit was established. Qu Daokui presided over the establishment meeting and accompanied the Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information, Xin Guobin, to conduct a special survey on the development of the robot industry. On the same day, Zhang Gaoli, Vice Premier of the State Council, inspected Liaoning, and Qu Daokui accompanied Zhang Gaoli to inspect the digital production workshop of Xinsong Robot.
According to Luo Jun, executive chairman of the International Robotics and Intelligent Equipment Industry Alliance, the robot industry has become one of the hottest industries in China, and it is highly valued from the central ministries to local governments.
However, the reporter of "Daily Economic News" found that behind the hot concept of robots, it is difficult to hide the low-end of high-end industries, the bottleneck of core components and the three "pain points" of robot enterprises.
Xu Fang, dean of Shenyang Xinsong Robotics Research Institute, told the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that "domestic robot enterprises have been established for nearly five years. The scale of enterprises is small, mostly concentrated in the field of system integration, and the research and development capabilities of the whole machine are insufficient. With a large number of enterprises and scattered industries, it is easy to form a situation of 'one rush.'"
"Pain point" 1: Is it a robot or a machine?
In March of this year, Google robot AlphaGo defeated the world's top chess player Li Shishi, once again let the concept of robots and artificial intelligence popular around the world. However, from the machine to the robot, there is a lot of technical difficulties behind the word difference.
Xu Fang believes that the key technologies of the new generation of robots should include visual perception, cognition, lightweight ontology and the application of emerging materials, which can be adapted to human-machine collaboration. In addition, there is a need for more natural interactions in human-computer interaction than the current way of teaching.
However, from machines to robots, whether domestic or foreign, there is actually a lot of distance. Luo Jun told the reporter of "Daily Economic News", "Now the factory robots, logistics robots, etc. can only be counted as automated machines, and at most can only be regarded as robot 1.0. The real robot should be machine plus artificial intelligence, and integrate Information technology and Internet technology are capable of self-perception, learning, and decision making. I call it Robot 2.0."
Luo Jun believes that Chinese robots can not only face the huge gap of the 1.0 era, but also face the huge gap of the 2.0 era.
The "Robot Industry Development Plan (2016~2020)" released on April 26 this year proposes to break through the top ten signs of arc welding robots, vacuum (clean) robots, surgical robots, intelligent nursing robots, and human-machine cooperative robots. product.
Taking the surgical robot as an example, Luo Jun told the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that the current minimally invasive medical surgical robots are basically monopolized by the Da Vinci robots in the United States.
“The Da Vinci robot is known as the 'Advanced Laparoscopic System', which allows surgeons to sit on the stereo console and remotely control the endoscopic surgical instruments through the bedside arm of the patient. From clinical experience, Finch robots perform prostate surgery, which can be more accurately dissected and manipulated, which can reduce bleeding and trauma." Luo Jun said.
In China, surgical robots are still in the research and development stage. The reporter noted that in June this year, Xinsong Robot also participated in the Liaoning He's Eye Hospital. Xingen Robot Brand and Public Relations Minister Hahn Jing told the "Daily Economic News" reporter that "the participating hospitals reflect the layout of Xinsong in the future medical robot field. Xinsong is currently doing medical rehabilitation and assisting disabled people. The robot has not yet developed a robot for surgery."
Compared with foreign robots that already have primary artificial intelligence, China's robots are still difficult to match. Even compared with foreign mature industrial robots, there are still many gaps in China's robots.
The China Mobile Industry Development White Paper (2016 Edition) released by China Electronic Information Industry Development Research Institute shows that domestic industrial robots are mainly low-end products, mainly handling and loading and unloading robots, mostly three-axis and four-axis robots. The high-end industrial robot market for six-axis or above, which is used in high-end industries such as automobile manufacturing and welding, is mainly occupied by Japanese and European and American companies. The domestic six-axis industrial robots account for less than 10% of the total installed capacity of industrial robots nationwide.
In addition, in recent years, there have been many robots in various performance stages and exhibitions. Robots singing, dancing, and even talking to people can always attract a lot of onlookers. Luo Jun couldn't help but sigh: "These seemingly high-end robots don't really have much core technology, let alone artificial intelligence. It should have been high-end equipment, but now it is used to sing and dance, and the robot is used as a toy. â€
"Pain point" 2: Key parts rely heavily on imports
In addition to the lack of high-end products, the situation of the core components of China's robot products relying on imports has not changed. Controllers, servo motors, and reducers are considered to be the three core components of robots, accounting for 70% of the cost of robots. This is also the main bottleneck restricting the Chinese robot industry.
According to the above white paper, about 75% of precision reducers were imported from Japan in 2015. The main suppliers are Hamernaco, Nabtesco and Sumitomo. The servo motors and drives are more than 80% dependent on imports, mainly from Japan. Europe and America.
Take the servo motor as an example, in fact, it can be produced in China, but Xu Fang told the Daily Economic News reporter: "The servo motor for robots and the servo motor of other equipment are also different. The robot needs high speed and high precision. Highly reliable servo motors, the current domestic servo motors can only meet the requirements of welding robots."
In addition, the reducer acts as an intermediate device between the connected power source and the actuator, and is used to accurately control the robot's motion and transmit a larger torque, which has a great influence on the accuracy of the robot. "The speed reducer is similar to the servo motor. Compared with the universal reducer, the robot joint reducer requires short drive chain, small size, high power, light weight and easy control." Xu Fang on "Daily Economic News" "The reporter said.
According to him, the RV reducer and harmonic reducer used in the robot are now high-end reducers. Although there are manufacturers in China, the scale is very small. At present, the RV reducer is still monopolized by Nabtesco of Japan. Japan's Hamernaco has an absolute advantage in harmonic retarders.
Earlier, some industry sources revealed that the purchase price of a precision international reducer for the four international giants was 30,000-50,000 yuan, and it was sold to domestic customers with a good relationship of about 70,000 yuan, and the average ordinary customer was about 120,000 yuan. The cost of purchasing precision reducers is more than double that of the international giants. It can be seen how much the profit difference is between them.
The above white paper shows that the key components are heavily dependent on imports, which leads to pressure on production costs of domestic enterprises. Compared with foreign companies, domestic companies have to purchase speed reducers at nearly four times the price, and purchase servo drives at nearly twice the price.
Luo Jun said: "Google, IBM, Microsoft and other US companies are opening up a new era of robots, and the layout has been basically completed. And China is still seeking autonomy in the field of servo motors, controllers, and reducers."
Robots with artificial intelligence have not yet made effective progress, high-end products are lacking, and core components are subject to people. On June 16th, at the TOP10 Summit of Robots held in Shenyang, Xin Guobin, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also bluntly said: "The Chinese robot industry has seen a trend of 'low-end industrialization of high-end industries."
"Pain point" 3: The robot industry has been over-invested
Despite the obvious shortcomings in the domestic robot industry, this has not affected local governments and enterprises in the robot industry.
According to data from the China Robotics Industry Alliance, over 40 robotic industrial parks have been built and under construction in the past two years. Yao Zhijun, deputy secretary general of the China Robotics Industry Alliance, said that in the past two years, there have been 77 support policies for the robot industry.
At the press conference of "Robot Industry Development Plan (2016-2020)" held on April 26, Li Dong, Director of the Equipment Industry Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, also introduced preliminary statistics, involving more than 800 companies producing robots.
Behind the fiery appearance of the industry, some insiders also expressed concern about this "big dry up" situation. Xin Guobin bluntly stated at the TOP10 Summit of Robots on June 16th: "The Chinese robot industry has the worry of over-investment."
Luo Jun told the reporter of "Daily Economic News": "There are more than 800 robot companies and more than 40 robot parks. But among the more than 800 companies, nearly half of them are empty brands without products. The rest Nearly 70% to 80% of the companies in the company are agents who represent other people's products. They can really produce parts or robot products by themselves. There are about 100 companies in China, and these 100 companies still rely mainly on imports for core components. ""
Wang Ye, president of Nainbo Technology Co., Ltd., also said in an interview with the reporter of "Daily Economic News": "There are not too many good companies. When a large number of robot companies see welding robots and palletizing robots selling well, they will I’m going to do what these others have done.â€
Wang Ye also said that these enterprises not only lack their own competitiveness, but also cause low-end redundant construction and even overcapacity. â€
In this "competition" of the robot industry, the local government's subsidy policy has added "horsepower" to the company's entry. Some of these policies are subsidized according to the sales volume of the company, while others are targeted at the “machine generation†project.
For example, Hangzhou clearly stated that the amount of subsidy for a single project that meets certain “machine generation†conditions can be as high as 20 million yuan; Yantai’s policy stipulates that the highest subsidy for the first set of robots for the R&D and production of the city’s enterprises is 1 million yuan. yuan.
However, while government subsidies attract a large number of enterprises, it also causes some robot manufacturers to rely on subsidies to “liveâ€, unintentionally researching in technology, and even taking local government subsidies with the concept of robots.
“There are several companies coming to me recently. They have no factories, no equipment, no products. The most important thing is that they don’t have money, but they have to be robots. I ask them what to do? They bluntly can do processing according to our requirements. Service, we give him orders, they take the order and then go to the government to support." Luo Jun told the "Daily Economic News" reporter.
In the visits to robot companies in Guangzhou, Foshan, Dongguan, Shenzhen and other places, Luo Jun also found that domestic enterprises in the high-end sector could not get in, and the competition in the low-end field has become fierce, and it has reached a point where it is meager or even unprofitable. . "The reason why the company is not profitable and dare to take orders, one is because of the government subsidies, and the second is to peg the company's maintenance market in the later period." Luo Jun said.
When local governments and enterprises enthusiastically laid out the robot industry, even a high-ranking member of the ministry issued a warning: "Enterprises must not be fooled by local governments, and enterprises should not "fudge" local governments."
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