Nissan's EV "green leaf" has attracted much attention as a touchstone for the popularity of electric vehicles (EVs). Many people in the automotive and battery industries are currently paying attention to the sales appointments for the car. In Europe and China, the central government and local governments have successively introduced preferential policies for EVs. Automobile manufacturers who were skeptical about EVs have also begun to conclude cooperation agreements and gradually began to act. A few days ago, the author participated in the "AABC 2010" car battery international conference, in order to explore the development trend of car battery.
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"Nissan-Renault Group will sell 500,000 electric vehicles (EVs) in 2012" (Nissan President and CEO Carlos Ghosn). Nissan's EV "Green Leaf" will be launched in December 2010. The reservation of the car has been closely watched by many car-related people. This is also a matter of course. Because of the sales of green leaves, it is likely that companies will significantly adjust their current hybrid vehicle (HEV)-centric merchandise strategy.
In this context, Nissan announced on June 7, 2010 that the number of appointments in Japan exceeded 6,000 units in two months, reaching the target sales in Japan in 2010. According to reports, the number of appointments in the United States has exceeded 13,000.
Nissan will establish a production system with an annual output of 50,000 units in Japan in accordance with the original plan. In addition, since 2012, green leaves will be produced in the United States with a system of 150,000 vehicles per year. For this reason, construction of a factory including a battery factory has started in May 2010. Nissan announced that it will start producing lithium-ion rechargeable batteries for EVs in Portugal, France and the United Kingdom in Europe, and will make great strides in building an annual production capacity of 500,000 units.
Nissan was able to implement such a strong plan for EVs because the Nissan-Renault Group worked closely with governments and local governments to establish preferential systems such as EV grants and the involvement of local governments in the construction of infrastructure. At present, not only in developed countries such as Europe, Japan and the United States, but also in the world's largest auto market, China, EV preferential policies are also expanding.
Daimler and Toyota also change the policy?
With the continual enrichment of EV preferential policies, the trend of capital cooperation and technical cooperation between EVs for EVs is becoming more and more active (Figure 1). Surprisingly, even the doctrine had been pursuing independent Toyota also announced that it will risk the company advanced EV United States Tesla Motors invested $ 50 million Note 1). Toyota has mainly developed a plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV) that uses HEV and household power to charge a car battery to travel a certain distance, and has recently begun to shift toward EV.
Note 1) Toyota contributed to Tesla Motors on May 21, 2010, and reached an agreement on the development of EV and its components, production systems, and technology-related business cooperation. It is estimated that Toyota's GMMI, a joint venture with GM, was closed, and Tesla's purchase of its site also had a major impact on the cooperation.
In addition, European automakers have begun to announce the listing of EVs 2) with the preferential policies of EU countries for EV. Among them, Daimler of Germany is particularly active. The company announced in April 2010 that it decided to hold a 3.1% stake in the Nissan-Renault Group. The three companies will cooperate in the joint development of small cars including EVs. "In the future, it is very likely that there will be a joint investment in batteries for electric vehicles that require huge expenses" (Nissan President and CEO Carlos Ghosn).
Note 2) France plans to popularize 100,000 EVs by 2015, and will also produce 2 million EVs by 2020. Germany plans to popularize 1 million EVs and PHEVs by 2020, and Ireland plans to popularize 225,000 EVs by 2020. In addition, Europe's industrial research and development forum - European Technology Platform (European Technology Platform) strives to accumulate 1 million EVs and PHEVs in 2016, and cumulatively popularize 5 million EVs and PHEVs by 2020.
Daimler's cooperation around EV is more than that. The company is optimistic about the market development of EV in China. In June 2010, it established a joint venture with Shenzhen BYD Daimler New Technology Co., Ltd. (Shenzhen BYD Daimler New Technology).
In addition, the PSA Group of the European manufacturers will receive the "i-MiEV" supply from Mitsubishi Motors from mid-2010 and will be sold in Europe. Volkswagen will launch three EVs by 2013. The company plans to make EV account for 3% of the company's sales by 2018.
EV changes battery market
This trend around EVs has also begun to have a huge impact on the market for automotive batteries, the main component of electric vehicles. This is because previous electric vehicles were recognized as the result of taking HEV as the mainstream. The battery capacity of an HEV is only about 500~1kWh. If the battery manufacturer does not supply it to many auto manufacturers, it will not be able to achieve mass production. But if EV can be highly popular, it is another matter. Because the battery capacity of the EV is as high as 20 to 40 times that of the HEV.
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| Figure 1: The relationship between electric vehicles is becoming more complex Around the development of electric vehicles such as EVs and HEVs, cooperation between automakers has become increasingly complex. There are even car manufacturers working with a number of on-board lithium-ion rechargeable battery manufacturers. |
The Nomura Research Institute predicts that the market for electric vehicles (excluding mild HEVs) will be approximately 8.5 million units in 2020. The market is still expected to dominate the HEV with sales of more than 6 million vehicles, with less than 1 million EVs (Figure 2). However, from the market size of the car battery, the EV car battery will account for more than half of the amount. Because the EV uses a lot of car batteries. (To be continued, reporters, Ho Jizhi)
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| Figure 2: On-board lithium-ion rechargeable battery expands market size through EV The Nomura Research Institute predicts that the proportion of EVs in the electric vehicle market in 2020 will only account for more than 10% (a). However, by the amount, more than half of the car battery market will be occupied by EV batteries (b). In addition, the HEV does not include a mild HEV. The map was produced by the site based on the data of the Nomura Research Institute. |
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