This year, grid investment continues to maintain rapid growth

Recently, deputy secretary-general Ouyang Changyu of CEPD, and Huang Shonghong, researcher of Anxin Securities, and other experts predicted in an interview that: benefiting from the macroeconomic recovery and the introduction of a number of supportive policies from the country, this year the country’s electricity investment will be higher than 2012, grid investment Continue to maintain rapid growth, power supply investment will change the decline in two years.

The growth trend of power grid investment continued to show a “one-one-one-one-drop” feature. In the past two years, power grid investment showed a low growth trend. In 2012, investment in power grid construction completed only increased by 0.2% compared with 2011. Can grid investment continue its growth in 2013? After studying the work reports of the two major power grid companies in 2013, the reporter discovered that the power grid investment of the two major power grid enterprises this year showed the feature of “one liter and one drop”: the target fixed by the State Grid Corporation of China was 318.2 billion yuan, an increase of 12.8 billion yuan over 2012, an increase. 4.2%; China Southern Power Grid Corporation has set a target of 55.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.9 billion yuan from 2012, a year-on-year decrease of 17.7%.

It is simple to estimate that, in terms of total power grid investment in 2013, even if it is not counted by local power companies, the total investment of the two major corporations of the State Grid and South Network in power grid construction will reach 373.4 billion yuan, exceeding the national total of 369.3 billion yuan in 2012. The total investment in the power grid, the steady growth of this year's extension over the past two years, has been determined.

According to Ouyang Changyu, "The main direction of this year's grid investment will focus on the trans-regional transmission grid and the urban and rural power grids. The trans-regional power grid is mainly UHV, and the urban and rural power grids are mainly promoted by the Party's 18th Congress to promote new-type urbanization. Strategy, power grid companies will increase investment in the distribution network "This analysis is consistent with the two major power grid companies this year's work plan, the national grid this year's thinking is" the development of UHV is the most important, build power distribution The network is an important basis; China Southern Power Grid pointed out that it is necessary to speed up the construction of the “two-pass” DC project and continue to do a good job in the upgrading and reconstruction of rural power grids.

Power investment or reversal decline has been the trend of clean energy is the focus In 2011 and 2012, power supply investment has continued to decline year after year since the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan", in which the year-on-year decrease of 6.5% in 2011, a year-on-year decrease of 3.9% in 2012.

"In 2013, power investment may reverse this trend, mainly because the policy level has given greater support since last year, and the market environment and the operating conditions of power generation companies have also been greatly improved," Huang Shouhong analyzed.

Since 2012, China has given greater support to the two major power generation industries at the policy level: First, in December 2012, the State Council issued five measures to promote the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry, which greatly boosted investors' interest in the photovoltaic industry. Confidence; Second, the restart of nuclear power, in December 2012 Huaneng Shandong Shidao Bay high-temperature gas-cooled reactor nuclear power demonstration project started, the same month the second phase of the Jiangsu Tianwan Nuclear Power Station project started low-key. In the month before this, Guangdong Yangjiang No. 4 nuclear power unit and Fujian Fuqing No. 4 nuclear power unit have been started successively.

In terms of hydropower investment, Ouyang Changyu’s judgment is basically stable, which is consistent with 2012. Wind power will have a certain growth, but low growth. “In 2012, the new installed capacity of grid-connected wind power was 12.85 million kilowatts, and we expect it to be about 14 million kilowatts this year. There will surely be a slight increase in the amount of investment, "Has the thermal power industry, which has been reducing its investment quota for the past seven consecutive years, will continue to suffer a slump this year? Huang Shouhong’s judgment is that he should not be worse than 2012. “One is the decline in coal prices and the recovery of profitability of thermal power; the second is the improvement of the operating conditions of power generation companies, and the possession of money; Third, the development of the national economy, or the need Thermal power is supported by this kind of stable energy, after all, China is a big coal country.” The major power production central enterprises did not specify this year’s investment structure and quota at this year’s work meeting, but the definite development targets reflect the direction of investment: major power production central enterprises. Almost all of them have consistently proposed to speed up structural adjustment, vigorously develop clean energy, and accelerate the development of the coal industry.