Electric vehicles will lead to a sharp drop in production in the oil industry

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According to reports, Barclays Bank analysts predict that due to the popularity of electric vehicles and fuel efficiency, oil consumption will usher in a major turn in 2025, when the daily oil consumption reduction is about equal to OPEC's third largest oil producer - - Iran's daily production.

According to a recent survey by Barclays commodity analysts last week, the popularity of electric vehicles and fuel efficiency will reduce auto fuel consumption by 3.5 million barrels per day by 2025. This reduction is about the same as the daily output of Iran, the top three oil producers of OPEC (OPEC). According to Reuters, Iran’s daily oil production is about 3.8 million barrels.

According to the report, if electric vehicles account for one-third of the auto market by 2040, then this will reduce oil consumption by 9 million barrels per day, accounting for about 90% of Saudi Arabia's daily oil production. OPEC predicts that this year's world oil demand will reach an average of 96.8 million barrels per day.

In addition, the report pointed out that the world's first major auto markets have recently proposed to ban or restrict the use of traditional fuel vehicles, including developed countries in Western Europe, including France, Germany, and the United Kingdom have made statements, while China, India and other general There are similar ideas in emerging markets. At the same time, California is also considering the introduction of a lock-up order.

However, the Barclays report also pointed out that the popularity of electric vehicles also faces multiple obstacles. For example, consumers may have doubts about the price of electric vehicles and battery life, and it is also questionable when the automotive industry can accelerate the production of electric vehicles and complete the transformation. Although the cruising range of electric vehicles will increase significantly in the next few years, the sales of electric vehicles are still a drop in the whole automobile market.

According to data from the International Energy Agency, global auto sales rose 40% last year as automakers introduced better-performing, more-featured electric vehicles. However, there are about 2 million electric vehicles on the road, which is less than 0.2% of the global light vehicle market. In addition, the continued decline in oil prices is also spurring consumers to buy large passenger cars such as SUVs.

The International Energy Agency released data on Thursday that the level of fuel efficiency improvement last year was the lowest since 2009. Some energy consultants attribute this to the slow introduction of new fuel efficiency policies. The data pointed out that from 2010 to 2015, light vehicle sales grew even faster in markets with lower fuel efficiency standards. The International Energy Agency warned: "The current light vehicle fuel standards are improving the standards for new vehicles, but the current rate of improvement is far from enough to meet long-term standards."

In addition, the Barclays report pointed out that with the popularity of electric vehicles, Europe's demand for natural gas as a source of power will not increase. In continental Europe, the demand for natural gas reached its peak in 2010 and then declined. Only when it is more competitive than coal, its demand has rebounded. In addition, the data shows that electric vehicles accounted for about 1.5% of the total new car registrations in Europe last year.