The other side of China's PV: cost over technology

[Source: "High-tech new industry" December issue / reporter Liang Zhongrong]

Even under the impact of the financial crisis and the European debt crisis, there is still a large influx of capital, which makes the cost of the entire PV industry chain drop rapidly. This cost reduction has surpassed the technological progress itself. However, in the event of market cold, China's large and medium-sized PV manufacturers collectively lost money. At present, about 50 domestic enterprises have been eliminated, and about one-third of enterprises have stopped production and reduced production.

The infiltration of solar photovoltaics has been more than five years, but Yao Feng, vice president of Jinko Energy (NYSE: JKS), is still shocked by the rapid rise of China's photovoltaic industry.

“In 2007, the price of PV modules was around 24.5 yuan/W, but now it only costs about 5 yuan/W. The speed of cost reduction is difficult to match in other industries.” Yao Feng gave an example of “New Industry”. The price of this component is to build a photovoltaic power station in a region with a bright light in western China, and its power generation cost can compete with conventional energy.

On the other side of the globe, the United States and the European Union have successively pushed China's photovoltaic companies to the "double-reverse" filing procedure, and the combined value of the two has reached 22.4 billion US dollars. The US Department of Commerce has passed the "double-reverse" final ruling, with up to 33%-365% of the penalized tariffs separating photovoltaic cell manufacturers from the US market.

Different from the "double-reverse" of any product in the United States and the European Union, the "double-reverse" investigation against the Chinese PV industry has encountered opposition from more than 90% of PV manufacturers in the two places from the beginning, and this part of the manufacturer is not manufacturing. Mainly, it is dominated by polysilicon and E PC (engineering general contracting) manufacturers. These companies have benefited from China's photovoltaic products, which have suffered from price competition.

As a rare high-tech field in China that stands in the same starting line as Western Europe and the United States, it relies on the combination of Shi Zhengrong, Zhao Jianhua, Wang Aihua, Zhang Fengming, Dai Ximing and other returnees, local talents, and low-cost labor, plus the accumulation of private capital. In a radical influx, China's photovoltaic industry has grown from a small brick to a skyscraper in the world for the past 10 years.

Even under the impact of the financial crisis and the European debt crisis, there is still a large influx of capital, which makes the cost of the entire PV industry chain drop rapidly. This cost reduction has surpassed the technological progress itself.

“For example, a car, new technology will increase its fuel efficiency by 10%, but it will also increase the price of the car by 20%, which makes sense in the era of high oil prices. But the paradox is that oil prices are falling and you are having difficulty Seeing the bottom, the cost of fuel economy brought about by technological advancement is meaningless, because the price of oil is falling faster than the cost of saving fuel.” An executive from Jiangsu Zhongneng Silicon Industry made a metaphor.

This advantage has two advantages: international companies face China's entire industry chain and lower cost competition, and lose ground; on the other hand, photovoltaic power generation costs will reach 0.6 yuan / kWh in 2012, and can be compared with conventional energy competition.

Cost win
At the University of New South Wales in Australia, with the laboratory of Martin Green, the father of solar energy, the Chinese students who graduated from the University of New South Wales in Australia have now supported half of China's PV industry, and have already formed a Chinese PV industry. "University of New South Wales".

Their names are: Shi Zhengrong, Zhao Jianhua, Wang Aihua, Zhang Fengming, Dai Ximing, Ji Jingjia, Zhang Guangchun, Cai Shijun, Zheng Guangfu, Yun Fei, Tang Yunhui, Yao Guoxiao, Song Dengyuan...

Among these people, Shi Zhengrong is the owner of several patents for thin film solar technology, and Zhao Jianhua and Wang Aihua have maintained a world record of 24.7% photoelectric conversion efficiency of crystalline silicon cells.

Among them, some of the current positions are: Shi Zhengrong is the chairman of Wuxi Suntech, Zhao Jianhua is the chief technology officer of CLP, TANDBERG is the CEO of Xuguang Global Optoelectronics, Yang Huaijin is the CEO of Hairun Photovoltaic, and Wang Aihua is the vice president of CLP. President, Zheng Guangfu is the chief technology officer of Jiangmen Shangri New Energy, Zhang Fengming is the chief technology officer of Tianwei New Energy, Dai Ximing is the chief technology officer of Eric Solar Global Optoelectronics, Song Dengyuan is the chief technology officer of Yingli, and Stuart Wenham is the chief technology officer of Suntech.

The marketization of China's PV industry was first started by Wuxi Suntech Power, which was founded by Shi Zhengrong, and then continued to move forward in the wake of the power plant installation in Germany. The high international market competition quickly formed a wave.

As a result, the world's leading photovoltaic technology brought back by returnees, the government's industrial encouragement, the rich capital and cheap labor combined, China's photovoltaic cell production capacity jumped to the top in the world in 2007.

Today, polysilicon accounts for about 60% of global production capacity, silicon wafer production capacity is about 70%, polycrystalline silicon battery production is nearly 70%, and component production capacity accounts for about 70%. The huge advantage in the entire photovoltaic industry chain makes the whole world The photovoltaic industry has felt the strong impact of Chinese PV companies.

The aforementioned Zhongneng executives said that the development of photovoltaic enterprises has subverted people's perception of China's cost advantage in the past. Under the premise that technology is lagging behind, China's rich capital has quickly caught up to make up for technological cracks, thus creating a strong Competitiveness. “Because the photoelectric conversion rate of crystalline silicon cells has increased from 15% to 20% in the past 4 years, the cost reduction has been much higher than this”.

According to statistics, since the beginning of 2011, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery chips, and components have fallen by about 71%, 60%, 63%, and 52%, respectively. Chinese companies have contributed to this.

Inspired by the prospect of photovoltaics, 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions have listed the photovoltaic industry as an emerging industry with priority support for development; 300 of the 600 cities have developed photovoltaics, and more than 100 have built photovoltaic industry bases: Xuzhou, Hangzhou, Suzhou, Nanjing, Taizhou, Wenzhou, Heyuan, Guilin, Kunming, Yinchuan, Dunhuang, Erdos, etc., the photovoltaic industry is blooming in dozens of cities.

"The photovoltaic industry is indeed overcapacity at present. I personally estimate that the production capacity of the entire industry may be over 200%." ​​Wang Yuelin, chairman of Silicone Technology, predicted this.

Unfinished

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Wireless CPE

What is 5G CPE?

Definition of 5G CPE
CPE stands for Customer Premise Equipment. The so-called front end refers to the equipment in front of the customer's terminal equipment. When we use Wi-Fi, if the distance is far, or there are more rooms, it is easy to appear signal blind spots, resulting in mobile phones or ipads or computers can not receive Wi-Fi signals. The CPE can relay the Wi-Fi signal twice to extend the coverage of Wi-Fi.

What are the benefits of CPE?
Through the following comparison table, it is not difficult to understand the technical advantages of CPE products:

* Currently, the global 5G FWA service is mainly in the Sub-6GHz band, with only the United States and Italy supporting the millimeter wave band.

* 5G CPE integrates the low cost of Wi-Fi and the large bandwidth of 5G, combining the advantages of the two to form a strong complement to traditional fiber broadband.

The relationship between 5G, FWA and CPE
It can be said that FWA (Fixed Wireless Access) will be the most down-to-earth application of 5G technology. FWA business plays a key role in enabling "connecting the unconnected." FWA is a low-cost, easy-to-deploy flexible broadband solution. Compared with wired access technology, FWA has been an ideal choice for deploying broadband in many countries and regions because it does not need to obtain rights of way, dig trenches and bury cables, and drill holes through walls. The development of 5G technology is further promoting the development of FWA.

FWA services (including 4G and 5G) have reached 100 million users. FWA is no longer a niche service; The FWA industry as a whole has been supported by numerous suppliers. Why is that? In the 5G era, 5G CPE receives 5G signals from operator base stations and then converts them into Wi-Fi signals or wired signals to allow more local devices to get online. For operators, the initial user penetration rate of 5G is low, and the investment is difficult to realize quickly; The CPE business can use the idle network to increase revenue for operators, so major operators vigorously promote the development of 5G CPE.

FWA services can be used for both home (To C) and business (To B), and customers have different requirements for CPE devices when using FWA services in different application environments, resulting in consumer grade 5G CPE and industrial grade 5G CPE (similar to home routers and industrial routers).

In 2020, the global market size of 5G CPE will reach 3 million units, and it is expected that in the next five years, the market size of 5G CPE will maintain a compound growth rate of more than 100%, reaching 120 million units in 2025, with a market value of 60 billion yuan. As an important market for 5G CPE, China's 5G CPE market size will reach 1.5 million units in 2020 and is expected to reach 80 million units in 2025, with a market value of 27 billion yuan.

The difference between 5G CPE and other devices
CPE can support a large number of mobile terminals that access the Internet at the same time, and the device can be directly inserted with a SIM card to receive mobile signals. CPE can be widely used in rural areas, cities, hospitals, units, factories, communities and other wireless network access, can save the cost of laying wired networks.

A Router is a hardware device that connects two or more networks, acts as a gateway between networks, and is the main node device of the Internet. Routers use routes to determine the forwarding of data. If it is a home router, it does not support a SIM card slot, and can only receive signals by connecting to optical fiber or cable and then convert it into WI-FI to provide a certain number (several) of terminal devices to surf the Internet.

Industrial 5G CPE is equivalent to 5G industrial routers, and the technology of the two is not very different. On the one hand, the industrial 5G CPE converts 5G network signals into WiFi signals for transmission, and on the other hand, the data received by the WiFi network is converted into 5G network signals for uploading. In addition, industrial 5G CPE generally supports routing functions.

5G CPE trends
According to a research report, after evaluating the products of some mainstream 5G CPE suppliers, many institutions believe that the development of 5G CPE products will continue in two aspects: one is to support mmWave and Sub-6 GHz at the same time; Second, the design will pay attention to humanized operation and installation. The industry development trend will accelerate the demand for 5G in the medical, education and manufacturing industries due to the epidemic, and 5G FWA will promote global 5G CPE shipments.

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