Among these different perspectives, what kind of reason is the direct killer that caused this continuous lack of electricity? In the interview, some experts also noticed changes in hydropower this year. In their view, the lack of hydropower is the initiator of this year's persistent shortage of electricity.
Zhang Boting, deputy secretary-general of the Chinese Society of Hydroelectric Engineering, said that the amount of electricity generated from water and water is reduced, and some places are reduced.
This is the most important cause of the apparent contradiction between coal and electricity. Let's push the coal-fired power to the first line. In the summer, there were fewer hydropower and power plants in the summer, and it was less money to pay for it. Now it’s impossible to pay compensation. Something is that you don't give me, I don't have money to buy coal.
Li Chih-chih, director of Hongjiadu Power Plant: This year can be said to have encountered the worst year since the completion of the reservoir. As of today, the total water supply to the reservoir area is only 4.5-460 million cubic meters. This incoming water is more than the average annual design deviation. 60% to 70% less, we now have only 1082.7 meters of dry water, and only less than 7 meters from our dead water level. The water level of the inventory is only 200 million cubic meters.
Since the impoundment of the Hongjiadu Hydropower Station has already dropped to the lowest level, the surface of the underwater buoy used as a warning and the construction road when the dam was built was exposed.
At present, the amount of water in the Wujiang River Basin is 9.095 billion cubic meters, which is 59.7% less than the average for many years. As of press time, the Hongjiadu Hydropower Station can only provide 7 million cubic meters of water per day, generating about 1.5 million kilowatt hours of electricity. According to statistics, this year's power generation will only reach 50% of the designed power by the end of the year, which is the lowest year since the 1954 Wujiang River Basin.
In fact, not only is the Wujiang River lacking water, but most of the rivers in the country are not optimistic about the amount of water coming in this year. According to the data provided by CEC, in the first 10 months of this year, the average utilization hours of hydropower equipment nationwide was only 2,639 hours, a drop of 379 hours. This is the first year of negative growth in hydropower generation since the “Eleventh Five-Year Planâ€. By the end of September, the adjustable water and energy storage value of major hydropower plants in China Southern Power Grid decreased by 64.9% and 61.4% year-on-year, respectively.
Professor Zeng Ming of North China Electric Power University: The original hydroelectric power stations in the southern province had poor water supply throughout the year. This year's water situation was not good, and all of them were reversed. This caused a huge loss of water and electricity. This year is obviously less than last year and previous years.
Hou Yong of the Statistical Department of the China Electricity Council: The external reason for the lack of electricity is that the incoming water is relatively dry. This extreme weather is almost 100 years, resulting in a further increase in the impact of power shortages. Because hydropower in these provinces is relatively concentrated and external weather conditions are now occurring more and more frequently, so the impact is increasing.
Still taking the Hongjiadu Reservoir as an example, the hydropower station at the junction of Zhijin County and Luxi County in Guizhou Province is one of the first major projects for the start of West China Electric Power Transmission. In the Guizhou power grid, it is the main force for peaking, frequency modulation, and standby power supply. This year's biggest dry season this year has brought pressure on local electricity supply.
On the shore of the Hongjiadu Reservoir, beneath the lush vegetation, there is a clear dividing line. It was the place where the water level reached in previous years, and this area exposed to sunlight makes people think of the mirage retreat. The scene.
According to expert analysis, although China’s total hydropower development ranks second in the world, compared with Western developed countries, there is a large gap between the scale of development, pumped storage, and per capita occupancy.
Zhang Boting, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Hydroelectric Engineering: Now it is so difficult for us to have water and electricity this year. In fact, an important reason for us is that our country’s hydropower development leading reservoirs do not work, and China’s reservoirs are much larger than the United States. However, the capacity for regulating and reserving is only half that of the United States, but our population is five times that of the United States. According to per capita terms, our country's capacity for reserving and recharging is only one-tenth that of the United States. This results in a drought once it does not rain, and once it rains, it Drainage, flood resistance in summer, and drought in winter, is because there is no ability to save it.
In the South China Power Grid, the proportion of electricity supply for hydropower is 30%. The power grids in Yunnan and Guangxi are also responsible for 60% of the total electricity generated by hydropower. Fatality. At the same time, the lack of water and agricultural irrigation caused by the long-term drought also turned the short-lived Qiuyu into a cup of water.
Wang Zhongqu, Director of Safety Production Department of Guodian Group: This year's hydropower is the reason for God. Several rivers in the south, including Minjiang River, Hongshui River, and Wujiang River, are much less than the major rivers, many are 70% less, and some 20 are less. % -30%, including the Yangtze River Basin is also less than in previous years, only the Yellow River Basin has increased, the entire southern hydropower than in previous years, the film was 20% -30%.
Zhang Boting, deputy secretary-general of the Chinese Society of Hydroelectric Engineering, said that after this fall, less water had to meet the local groundwater before it could form runoff. Therefore, the impact of the runoff was positive. Hubei was the most obvious, with more electricity in the summer and shortage of electricity in the winter. That is, capacity adjustment is not feasible; after all, the capacity of the Three Gorges Reservoir is only 200-300 billion cubic meters, and the annual runoff of the Yangtze River is one trillion cubic meters. Therefore, if the reserve capacity is strong, then there will be no problem between winter and summer. Being able to do a good job of adjusting capacity is very easy.
According to Zhang Boting, another important reason that affects China's hydropower capacity adjustment is that China's hydropower was once slowed down in the development process, affecting the construction process of medium and large-sized leading hydropower stations.
Zhang Boting, deputy secretary-general of the Chinese Society of Hydroelectric Engineering, during the period of the 11th Five-Year Plan period, China’s hydropower development has been slower. Due to the influence of public opinion, hydropower development has met with many difficulties. This way, the approval and development of hydropower are reduced from the central government to local governments. Slowly, this has already emerged from the data. It is expected that the 12th Five-Year Hydropower Project will only be installed at a capacity of 60-70 million kilowatts, so that the number of hydropower production in the 12th Five-Year Plan will be greatly reduced due to the 11th Five-Year Plan. Now. However, the start of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period will reach 120 million kilowatts, which is 120 million kilowatts of conventional, plus storage capacity of 160 million kilowatts, which means that 160 million kilowatts is equivalent to more than double the previous five years.
The public statistics show that in the next few years, with the completion of several leading hydropower stations in the southwest, hydropower capacity for regulation and adjustment and water resources will quickly play an important role in the coming years. However, due to the long period of hydropower construction and the inability of remote water to solve the thirst, the pattern of water and fire will continue for a short period of time. According to Zhang Boting, this year, the willingness of power companies to generate electricity will fall. The lack of timely replenishment of hydropower is also an important reason for the continued lack of electricity in the country.
Zhang Boting, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Hydroelectric Engineering: In previous years, because coal was relatively cheap, thermal power companies were willing to generate electricity. This year, coal is expensive, coal power loses money, and can use hydropower to use water and electricity. In previous years, it also used hydropower to generate power. For hydropower, this year's hydropower is not up to expectations, so this contradiction becomes apparent.
China Customs Statistical Information Department Hou Yong: Hydropower is an external performance of this year's power gap. After so many years of accumulation, our installed capacity has grown slower than our economic growth, or is in a state of equilibrium with our economic growth. If some external conditions are not broken, for example, the reduction of incoming water will weaken our supply, especially if we concentrate on a few provinces, then this balance may be broken and the overall fragile balance Reducing the disruption has also created a situation in which the electricity supply and demand in the country has become tense. .
Severe water shortages make hydropower companies in several provinces of southern China miserable. Near November, with the arrival of the winter, the power industry will usher in an annual peak winter. So, what is the overall situation in this year's peak winter season?
Wang Zhongqu, Director of the Safety Production Department of Guodian Group: Because this year's hydroelectricity is not available until May or June of next year, the winter dry season and the large winter electricity consumption will surely result in power shortages in the country, especially in the South. Several provinces in the south definitely lack power. Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangdong and Guangxi, including Hunan and Hubei, are definitely regions with relatively low power shortages.
According to the analysis of experts, under the current tight supply and demand situation of the entire power supply, this tightly-balanced chain can easily be broken. Once a certain problem arises, the power shortage will further expand.
In addition, in addition to water shortages, the lack of installed capacity in some provinces and regions, as well as the lack of electricity caused by the price of coal will also make the lack of power this winter and spring have increased a lot of unknown.
CERD’s statistics department Hou Yong: Zhejiang is really short of capacity, but Guangdong is relatively tight because it has less power to deliver. Originally, Xidian had to send more than 20 million kilowatts to it, and Xidian gave it less. , Its installed capacity is relatively tight, and another one is that the installed capacity in Chongqing is relatively tight.
CTO Secretary-General Wang Zhixuan: The basic reason for this year's power shortage is that it is multifaceted. For example, the contradiction between coal and electricity, the loss of power companies, including the issue of hydropower, some contradictions have not been eased, and we are still against thermal power. The enthusiasm for investment has declined, which will have a great impact on the future situation of power supply and demand.
Zhang Boting, deputy secretary-general of the Chinese Society of Hydroelectric Engineering, said that the amount of electricity generated from water and water is reduced, and some places are reduced.
This is the most important cause of the apparent contradiction between coal and electricity. Let's push the coal-fired power to the first line. In the summer, there were fewer hydropower and power plants in the summer, and it was less money to pay for it. Now it’s impossible to pay compensation. Something is that you don't give me, I don't have money to buy coal.
Li Chih-chih, director of Hongjiadu Power Plant: This year can be said to have encountered the worst year since the completion of the reservoir. As of today, the total water supply to the reservoir area is only 4.5-460 million cubic meters. This incoming water is more than the average annual design deviation. 60% to 70% less, we now have only 1082.7 meters of dry water, and only less than 7 meters from our dead water level. The water level of the inventory is only 200 million cubic meters.
Since the impoundment of the Hongjiadu Hydropower Station has already dropped to the lowest level, the surface of the underwater buoy used as a warning and the construction road when the dam was built was exposed.
At present, the amount of water in the Wujiang River Basin is 9.095 billion cubic meters, which is 59.7% less than the average for many years. As of press time, the Hongjiadu Hydropower Station can only provide 7 million cubic meters of water per day, generating about 1.5 million kilowatt hours of electricity. According to statistics, this year's power generation will only reach 50% of the designed power by the end of the year, which is the lowest year since the 1954 Wujiang River Basin.
In fact, not only is the Wujiang River lacking water, but most of the rivers in the country are not optimistic about the amount of water coming in this year. According to the data provided by CEC, in the first 10 months of this year, the average utilization hours of hydropower equipment nationwide was only 2,639 hours, a drop of 379 hours. This is the first year of negative growth in hydropower generation since the “Eleventh Five-Year Planâ€. By the end of September, the adjustable water and energy storage value of major hydropower plants in China Southern Power Grid decreased by 64.9% and 61.4% year-on-year, respectively.
Professor Zeng Ming of North China Electric Power University: The original hydroelectric power stations in the southern province had poor water supply throughout the year. This year's water situation was not good, and all of them were reversed. This caused a huge loss of water and electricity. This year is obviously less than last year and previous years.
Hou Yong of the Statistical Department of the China Electricity Council: The external reason for the lack of electricity is that the incoming water is relatively dry. This extreme weather is almost 100 years, resulting in a further increase in the impact of power shortages. Because hydropower in these provinces is relatively concentrated and external weather conditions are now occurring more and more frequently, so the impact is increasing.
Still taking the Hongjiadu Reservoir as an example, the hydropower station at the junction of Zhijin County and Luxi County in Guizhou Province is one of the first major projects for the start of West China Electric Power Transmission. In the Guizhou power grid, it is the main force for peaking, frequency modulation, and standby power supply. This year's biggest dry season this year has brought pressure on local electricity supply.
On the shore of the Hongjiadu Reservoir, beneath the lush vegetation, there is a clear dividing line. It was the place where the water level reached in previous years, and this area exposed to sunlight makes people think of the mirage retreat. The scene.
According to expert analysis, although China’s total hydropower development ranks second in the world, compared with Western developed countries, there is a large gap between the scale of development, pumped storage, and per capita occupancy.
Zhang Boting, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Hydroelectric Engineering: Now it is so difficult for us to have water and electricity this year. In fact, an important reason for us is that our country’s hydropower development leading reservoirs do not work, and China’s reservoirs are much larger than the United States. However, the capacity for regulating and reserving is only half that of the United States, but our population is five times that of the United States. According to per capita terms, our country's capacity for reserving and recharging is only one-tenth that of the United States. This results in a drought once it does not rain, and once it rains, it Drainage, flood resistance in summer, and drought in winter, is because there is no ability to save it.
In the South China Power Grid, the proportion of electricity supply for hydropower is 30%. The power grids in Yunnan and Guangxi are also responsible for 60% of the total electricity generated by hydropower. Fatality. At the same time, the lack of water and agricultural irrigation caused by the long-term drought also turned the short-lived Qiuyu into a cup of water.
Wang Zhongqu, Director of Safety Production Department of Guodian Group: This year's hydropower is the reason for God. Several rivers in the south, including Minjiang River, Hongshui River, and Wujiang River, are much less than the major rivers, many are 70% less, and some 20 are less. % -30%, including the Yangtze River Basin is also less than in previous years, only the Yellow River Basin has increased, the entire southern hydropower than in previous years, the film was 20% -30%.
Zhang Boting, deputy secretary-general of the Chinese Society of Hydroelectric Engineering, said that after this fall, less water had to meet the local groundwater before it could form runoff. Therefore, the impact of the runoff was positive. Hubei was the most obvious, with more electricity in the summer and shortage of electricity in the winter. That is, capacity adjustment is not feasible; after all, the capacity of the Three Gorges Reservoir is only 200-300 billion cubic meters, and the annual runoff of the Yangtze River is one trillion cubic meters. Therefore, if the reserve capacity is strong, then there will be no problem between winter and summer. Being able to do a good job of adjusting capacity is very easy.
According to Zhang Boting, another important reason that affects China's hydropower capacity adjustment is that China's hydropower was once slowed down in the development process, affecting the construction process of medium and large-sized leading hydropower stations.
Zhang Boting, deputy secretary-general of the Chinese Society of Hydroelectric Engineering, during the period of the 11th Five-Year Plan period, China’s hydropower development has been slower. Due to the influence of public opinion, hydropower development has met with many difficulties. This way, the approval and development of hydropower are reduced from the central government to local governments. Slowly, this has already emerged from the data. It is expected that the 12th Five-Year Hydropower Project will only be installed at a capacity of 60-70 million kilowatts, so that the number of hydropower production in the 12th Five-Year Plan will be greatly reduced due to the 11th Five-Year Plan. Now. However, the start of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period will reach 120 million kilowatts, which is 120 million kilowatts of conventional, plus storage capacity of 160 million kilowatts, which means that 160 million kilowatts is equivalent to more than double the previous five years.
The public statistics show that in the next few years, with the completion of several leading hydropower stations in the southwest, hydropower capacity for regulation and adjustment and water resources will quickly play an important role in the coming years. However, due to the long period of hydropower construction and the inability of remote water to solve the thirst, the pattern of water and fire will continue for a short period of time. According to Zhang Boting, this year, the willingness of power companies to generate electricity will fall. The lack of timely replenishment of hydropower is also an important reason for the continued lack of electricity in the country.
Zhang Boting, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Hydroelectric Engineering: In previous years, because coal was relatively cheap, thermal power companies were willing to generate electricity. This year, coal is expensive, coal power loses money, and can use hydropower to use water and electricity. In previous years, it also used hydropower to generate power. For hydropower, this year's hydropower is not up to expectations, so this contradiction becomes apparent.
China Customs Statistical Information Department Hou Yong: Hydropower is an external performance of this year's power gap. After so many years of accumulation, our installed capacity has grown slower than our economic growth, or is in a state of equilibrium with our economic growth. If some external conditions are not broken, for example, the reduction of incoming water will weaken our supply, especially if we concentrate on a few provinces, then this balance may be broken and the overall fragile balance Reducing the disruption has also created a situation in which the electricity supply and demand in the country has become tense. .
Severe water shortages make hydropower companies in several provinces of southern China miserable. Near November, with the arrival of the winter, the power industry will usher in an annual peak winter. So, what is the overall situation in this year's peak winter season?
Wang Zhongqu, Director of the Safety Production Department of Guodian Group: Because this year's hydroelectricity is not available until May or June of next year, the winter dry season and the large winter electricity consumption will surely result in power shortages in the country, especially in the South. Several provinces in the south definitely lack power. Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangdong and Guangxi, including Hunan and Hubei, are definitely regions with relatively low power shortages.
According to the analysis of experts, under the current tight supply and demand situation of the entire power supply, this tightly-balanced chain can easily be broken. Once a certain problem arises, the power shortage will further expand.
In addition, in addition to water shortages, the lack of installed capacity in some provinces and regions, as well as the lack of electricity caused by the price of coal will also make the lack of power this winter and spring have increased a lot of unknown.
CERD’s statistics department Hou Yong: Zhejiang is really short of capacity, but Guangdong is relatively tight because it has less power to deliver. Originally, Xidian had to send more than 20 million kilowatts to it, and Xidian gave it less. , Its installed capacity is relatively tight, and another one is that the installed capacity in Chongqing is relatively tight.
CTO Secretary-General Wang Zhixuan: The basic reason for this year's power shortage is that it is multifaceted. For example, the contradiction between coal and electricity, the loss of power companies, including the issue of hydropower, some contradictions have not been eased, and we are still against thermal power. The enthusiasm for investment has declined, which will have a great impact on the future situation of power supply and demand.
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