For the semiconductor industry that has reached such a mature scale, it is difficult to look forward to the next year's technological trend, because every tiny technological change can be regarded as a major breakthrough. The market demand pushed the semiconductor technology to the peak of industrial precision production in the world, and also divided its industry division into one of the most successful industrial chain development models in the world. Therefore, facing the future, we can only expect the opening of a new semiconductor era.
Good for 2011
After experiencing a strong recovery of the entire industry in 2010 and entering 2011, semiconductor companies are facing a completely new competitive landscape. Objectively speaking, the development of semiconductor technology has always been on the road to higher performance, lower power consumption and smaller size. Under such a big premise, there are many specific favorable factors for semiconductors entering 2011.
First of all, the market demand remains strong. After experiencing a reduction in production in 2009, semiconductor inventories have been basically emptied, which objectively caused many semiconductor companies' bright 2010 results. By the end of 2010, the supply cycle of semiconductors was still much longer than before 2008, and inventory was always at a relatively low level. At a low level, this will inevitably promote the continued growth of the performance of semiconductor companies in 2011. Although this rate has significantly declined compared with 2010, the growth based on a higher starting point is itself a matter of gratification.
Second, the new process arrived. In 2011, the most advanced process node will continue to be promoted. In the second half of the year, Intel will launch a mass production chip with a 22nm process. TSMC will also provide a 28nm mass production foundry business. The mass production of the new process will undoubtedly bring the performance of the semiconductor chip to the band. Into a new height, the resulting chain effect is bound to trigger new market demand and technological innovation.
Moreover, in the first decade of the 21st century, semiconductors experienced two extremely thrilling ups and downs, which is only two ups and downs of semiconductor experience in a decade. In 2010, semiconductors have theoretically eclipsed the haze brought about by the economic crisis. For each semiconductor industry, they hope to reap the euphoria of the beginning of the century. After a fierce slide, the semiconductor industry will return in June and July. Growth, in return, is a near-doubling growth of the semiconductor industry.
Finally, the demand for semiconductors for new technologies and products became more apparent in 2011. On the one hand, due to the emergence of the economic crisis, the speed of basic network construction like 3G has been slowed down. The 3G network construction and terminal development in 2011 will remain the main driving force for semiconductor development, and will contribute more market value than in 2010. . On the other hand, the iPad's upsurge of tablet PCs has rekindled the already-smooth PC market. With the rise of more portable mobile information processing devices, semiconductors are once again full of impetus.
Not only has the traditional two major markets recovered again, markets such as electric vehicles, new energy, and medical care have continued to grow rapidly. They have even largely replaced the two traditional applications and have become the mainstay of semiconductor growth. The eternal theme of semiconductor development is higher performance, smaller size, lower power consumption, and higher price/performance ratio. Among them, power consumption is an important indicator to measure the performance and competitiveness of semiconductor products. After the Copenhagen Climate Conference, the global carbon emission will be used as a government-level task indicator, and as a source of energy for determining electronic energy consumption, energy conservation and consumption reduction Responsibility from semiconductors became an obligation, and under the mandatory directives, vigorous market demand was created. Therefore, the most important theme for semiconductor development in 2011 was energy saving and related new energy applications. This undoubtedly gave the lasting market demand for analog and power-based manufacturers.
Transformation 2011
In the face of these positives, semiconductor companies have no reason not to expect growth in 2011. However, after a major turmoil, more or less semiconductors will see some new changes.
Recalling the severe turbulence in the semiconductor industry triggered by the bursting of the tech bubble in 2001, the results are nothing more than two: First, enterprise-level demand has been gradually exceeded by individual consumer demand, and has become the main force driving the development of semiconductors; It is a cooperative mode in which semiconductors are transformed from IDM (Independent Design and Manufacturing) mode to Fabless-Foundry. It was precisely because of the overly optimistic estimate of the expansion rate of the Internet that led to the concentration of technology stocks. Since then, more semiconductor companies have begun to focus on the expansion of personal consumer electronics and contributed to the rapid growth of consumer electronics.
This time the turmoil is similar to the beginning of the century in terms of macroscopic appearance, but the motivation behind it is very different. After all, this is a global economic recession. This is obviously more than the collapse of electronics and information technology years ago. The issue that we still need to address squarely is that if we evaluate the five-year development track of memory, it is not hard to see that the memory market turmoil that began in early 2007 is a very clear indication. However, the slight turbulence that should have been caused by a more severe economy The situation has been enlarged and, of course, it has also been concealed.
With regard to changes in the industry chain, after this turmoil, practitioners have found that adopting the Fabless model can keep the cost low or even almost zero in the market downturn, and that the cost of process development is close to astronomical and therefore there will be more semiconductors. Manufacturers shift from independent production to OEM, and the degree of segmentation in the industry chain will be further deepened.
Questions 2011
Throughout 2010, after experiencing rapid growth in the first half of the year, analysts generally believe that the company's annual growth rate will tend to ease. The global economy is slowly recovering, which makes the industry growth forecast full of uncertainty, especially in the coming quarters, especially the fourth quarter of 2010 and the first quarter of 2011. For the current industry growth forecast for 2010, IDC, Gartner, and iSuppli give +21.0%, +31.5%, and +31.7%, respectively, and industry revenue exceeds the $300 billion mark for the first time. For 2011, Gartner's forecast is +4.6%, while iSuppli is +5.0%. In the face of 2011, semiconductors are still not a bright future. On the one hand, although memory has finally come out of the mud to set the tone for the overall growth of semiconductors, in the face of this year's rapidly expanding business, the growth rate of semiconductors may slow down significantly next year. Let people heart produce a trace of sadness. In addition, the periodical oscillations of semiconductors have not yet appeared in the 21st century. Therefore, whether there are some setbacks in the uncertain economic situation will be uncertain at present. In addition, the industrial structure will change every time the semiconductor industry experiences setbacks, and a number of traditional giants are gradually declining. New technologies and new markets have spawned new market leaders. At present, we do not see this happening. Does it mean that this time the semiconductor industry adjustment is still far from the end. In this adjustment period, any situation is possible. Therefore, semiconductors will still walk past 2011 with questions. Below we explore the development trend of semiconductor technology in 2011 from the perspective of different technology applications.
Good for 2011
After experiencing a strong recovery of the entire industry in 2010 and entering 2011, semiconductor companies are facing a completely new competitive landscape. Objectively speaking, the development of semiconductor technology has always been on the road to higher performance, lower power consumption and smaller size. Under such a big premise, there are many specific favorable factors for semiconductors entering 2011.
First of all, the market demand remains strong. After experiencing a reduction in production in 2009, semiconductor inventories have been basically emptied, which objectively caused many semiconductor companies' bright 2010 results. By the end of 2010, the supply cycle of semiconductors was still much longer than before 2008, and inventory was always at a relatively low level. At a low level, this will inevitably promote the continued growth of the performance of semiconductor companies in 2011. Although this rate has significantly declined compared with 2010, the growth based on a higher starting point is itself a matter of gratification.
Second, the new process arrived. In 2011, the most advanced process node will continue to be promoted. In the second half of the year, Intel will launch a mass production chip with a 22nm process. TSMC will also provide a 28nm mass production foundry business. The mass production of the new process will undoubtedly bring the performance of the semiconductor chip to the band. Into a new height, the resulting chain effect is bound to trigger new market demand and technological innovation.
Moreover, in the first decade of the 21st century, semiconductors experienced two extremely thrilling ups and downs, which is only two ups and downs of semiconductor experience in a decade. In 2010, semiconductors have theoretically eclipsed the haze brought about by the economic crisis. For each semiconductor industry, they hope to reap the euphoria of the beginning of the century. After a fierce slide, the semiconductor industry will return in June and July. Growth, in return, is a near-doubling growth of the semiconductor industry.
Finally, the demand for semiconductors for new technologies and products became more apparent in 2011. On the one hand, due to the emergence of the economic crisis, the speed of basic network construction like 3G has been slowed down. The 3G network construction and terminal development in 2011 will remain the main driving force for semiconductor development, and will contribute more market value than in 2010. . On the other hand, the iPad's upsurge of tablet PCs has rekindled the already-smooth PC market. With the rise of more portable mobile information processing devices, semiconductors are once again full of impetus.
Not only has the traditional two major markets recovered again, markets such as electric vehicles, new energy, and medical care have continued to grow rapidly. They have even largely replaced the two traditional applications and have become the mainstay of semiconductor growth. The eternal theme of semiconductor development is higher performance, smaller size, lower power consumption, and higher price/performance ratio. Among them, power consumption is an important indicator to measure the performance and competitiveness of semiconductor products. After the Copenhagen Climate Conference, the global carbon emission will be used as a government-level task indicator, and as a source of energy for determining electronic energy consumption, energy conservation and consumption reduction Responsibility from semiconductors became an obligation, and under the mandatory directives, vigorous market demand was created. Therefore, the most important theme for semiconductor development in 2011 was energy saving and related new energy applications. This undoubtedly gave the lasting market demand for analog and power-based manufacturers.
Transformation 2011
In the face of these positives, semiconductor companies have no reason not to expect growth in 2011. However, after a major turmoil, more or less semiconductors will see some new changes.
Recalling the severe turbulence in the semiconductor industry triggered by the bursting of the tech bubble in 2001, the results are nothing more than two: First, enterprise-level demand has been gradually exceeded by individual consumer demand, and has become the main force driving the development of semiconductors; It is a cooperative mode in which semiconductors are transformed from IDM (Independent Design and Manufacturing) mode to Fabless-Foundry. It was precisely because of the overly optimistic estimate of the expansion rate of the Internet that led to the concentration of technology stocks. Since then, more semiconductor companies have begun to focus on the expansion of personal consumer electronics and contributed to the rapid growth of consumer electronics.
This time the turmoil is similar to the beginning of the century in terms of macroscopic appearance, but the motivation behind it is very different. After all, this is a global economic recession. This is obviously more than the collapse of electronics and information technology years ago. The issue that we still need to address squarely is that if we evaluate the five-year development track of memory, it is not hard to see that the memory market turmoil that began in early 2007 is a very clear indication. However, the slight turbulence that should have been caused by a more severe economy The situation has been enlarged and, of course, it has also been concealed.
With regard to changes in the industry chain, after this turmoil, practitioners have found that adopting the Fabless model can keep the cost low or even almost zero in the market downturn, and that the cost of process development is close to astronomical and therefore there will be more semiconductors. Manufacturers shift from independent production to OEM, and the degree of segmentation in the industry chain will be further deepened.
Questions 2011
Throughout 2010, after experiencing rapid growth in the first half of the year, analysts generally believe that the company's annual growth rate will tend to ease. The global economy is slowly recovering, which makes the industry growth forecast full of uncertainty, especially in the coming quarters, especially the fourth quarter of 2010 and the first quarter of 2011. For the current industry growth forecast for 2010, IDC, Gartner, and iSuppli give +21.0%, +31.5%, and +31.7%, respectively, and industry revenue exceeds the $300 billion mark for the first time. For 2011, Gartner's forecast is +4.6%, while iSuppli is +5.0%. In the face of 2011, semiconductors are still not a bright future. On the one hand, although memory has finally come out of the mud to set the tone for the overall growth of semiconductors, in the face of this year's rapidly expanding business, the growth rate of semiconductors may slow down significantly next year. Let people heart produce a trace of sadness. In addition, the periodical oscillations of semiconductors have not yet appeared in the 21st century. Therefore, whether there are some setbacks in the uncertain economic situation will be uncertain at present. In addition, the industrial structure will change every time the semiconductor industry experiences setbacks, and a number of traditional giants are gradually declining. New technologies and new markets have spawned new market leaders. At present, we do not see this happening. Does it mean that this time the semiconductor industry adjustment is still far from the end. In this adjustment period, any situation is possible. Therefore, semiconductors will still walk past 2011 with questions. Below we explore the development trend of semiconductor technology in 2011 from the perspective of different technology applications.
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